Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 55.7%). Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 54.8% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 52.9%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 70.6%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 50.6%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Lindholm
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Lindholm
Stamkos
Last 7: Lindholm 4-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Lindholm
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
0
Lindholm
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
0
Lindholm
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (722)
56.1% (342)
-1.7%
Power Play
62.2% (164)
53.3% (92)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (83)
62.5% (8)
-13.1%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Lindholm is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Lindholm shoots right. Stamkos is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Stamkos
Home
55.8% (541)
53.4% (208)
Away
54.7% (428)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Lindholm
Stamkos
P1
54.8%
55.6%
P2
55.7%
52.8%
P3
55.6%
59.1%
OT
0.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
53.8%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 03:33 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 19:18 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:45 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:24 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 06:04 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 02:12 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |