Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lindholm wins 57.8% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 54.8% vs Novak 43.4% (+13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 73.9%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 89.1%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 83.1%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 80.0%
80.0%
20.0%
Lindholm
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Lindholm
Novak
Last 8: Lindholm 5-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
3
Lindholm
Novak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
0
Lindholm
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
0
Lindholm
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (722)
41.4% (379)
+13.0%
Power Play
62.2% (164)
46.9% (32)
+15.3%
On power play, Lindholm has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Lindholm is 57.8% vs left-shot opponents (699).
Lindholm shoots right. Novak is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Novak
Home
55.8% (541)
42.6% (195)
Away
54.7% (428)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Lindholm
Novak
P1
54.8%
42.4%
P2
55.7%
39.2%
P3
55.6%
44.7%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.8%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.3%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 11:05 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 14:06 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 03:08 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |