Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lindholm on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Lindholm wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 53.8% vs Novak 43.3% (+10.9%)
H2H factor
Lindholm leads 12-3 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Lindholm 80.9%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 98.2%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 95.1%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 91.0%
91.0%
9.0%
Lindholm
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
3
(15 meetings)
12
3
Lindholm
Novak
Last 10: Lindholm 7-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
2
3
Lindholm
Novak
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
3
0
Lindholm
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
7
0
Lindholm
Novak
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (8,505)
42.1% (1,539)
+11.7%
Power Play
59.3% (1,734)
51.9% (133)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (1,610)
50.0% (2)
-1.9%
On even strength, Lindholm has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Lindholm is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,111).
Lindholm shoots right. Novak is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Novak
Home
54.1% (5,943)
45.3% (814)
Away
53.6% (5,906)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Lindholm
Novak
P1
54.1%
43.9%
P2
54.5%
42.8%
P3
53.0%
41.7%
OT
53.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.6%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
53.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 11:05 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 14:06 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 03:08 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 06:25 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 08:03 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 13:33 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 05:53 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 2 | 03:50 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |