Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.2% vs 46.5%). Look for Schwartz on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Schwartz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 46.6% vs Schwartz 47.9% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwartz 84.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 78.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 52.0%
Result
Jaden Schwartz favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Staal
Schwartz
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Staal
Schwartz
Last 5: Staal 3-2 Schwartz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schwartz
1
2
Staal
Schwartz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Schwartz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Schwartz
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (565)
41.9% (62)
+7.7%
Power Play
35.0% (20)
52.2% (90)
-17.2%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (158)
0.0% (5)
+35.4%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +35.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schwartz shoots left. Staal is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Staal shoots left. Schwartz is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (96).
Home / Away
Staal
Schwartz
Home
46.1% (380)
50.6% (79)
Away
46.3% (363)
42.3% (78)
By Period
Staal
Schwartz
P1
45.7%
36.2%
P2
46.2%
44.4%
P3
46.5%
60.9%
Final 5 min
47.4%
32.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
46.2%
Schwartz
58.0%▲
53.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 11:42 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 16:18 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 05:55 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 15:59 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 06:29 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |