Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 50.0%). Look for Schwartz on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 50.6% vs Schwartz 50.0% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schwartz 73.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 76.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 56.7%
Result
Jaden Schwartz favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Staal
Schwartz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Staal
Schwartz
Last 8: Staal 4-4 Schwartz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schwartz
1
4
Staal
Schwartz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
0
Staal
Schwartz
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Schwartz
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (10,347)
47.2% (651)
+3.3%
Power Play
53.5% (2,023)
56.2% (345)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (781)
43.5% (46)
+0.7%
On even strength, Staal has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schwartz shoots left. Staal is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (8,336).
Staal shoots left. Schwartz is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Home / Away
Staal
Schwartz
Home
52.6% (6,558)
51.3% (526)
Away
48.6% (6,664)
48.6% (516)
By Period
Staal
Schwartz
P1
50.0%
49.1%
P2
51.1%
49.7%
P3
50.4%
51.0%
OT
55.2%
53.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Schwartz
58.0%▲
53.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 11:42 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 16:18 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 05:55 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 15:59 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 06:29 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Oct 30, 2019 | 1 | 01:12 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |
| Feb 6, 2018 | 1 | 15:22 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Jan 26, 2017 | 1 | 17:59 | Offensive | Jaden Schwartz |