Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 29 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 50.6% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 40-28 in 68 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 71.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 79.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 73.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 75.0%
25.0%
75.0%
Staal
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
40
-
28
(68 meetings)
40
28
Staal
Pavelski
Last 10: Staal 7-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
21
8
Staal
Pavelski
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
15
10
Staal
Pavelski
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
10
Staal
Pavelski
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (10,347)
53.6% (8,791)
-3.1%
Power Play
53.5% (2,023)
58.2% (2,122)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (781)
50.9% (1,138)
-6.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Staal is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (4,886).
Staal shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Staal
Pavelski
Home
52.6% (6,558)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
48.6% (6,664)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Staal
Pavelski
P1
50.0%
53.5%
P2
51.1%
55.2%
P3
50.4%
53.9%
OT
55.2%
52.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 04:58 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Dec 1, 2019 | OT | 04:27 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Dec 1, 2019 | 2 | 15:42 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Dec 1, 2019 | 1 | 01:23 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 3 | 18:20 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 3 | 11:31 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 05:59 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 02:50 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 3 | 12:07 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 00:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 00:37 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 06:26 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 06:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 15:08 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 08:10 | Offensive | Eric Staal |