Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 46.6% vs Hayes 49.5% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 71.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 72.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 50.8%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Staal
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Staal
Hayes
Last 9: Staal 4-5 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
2
Staal
Hayes
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Staal
Hayes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (565)
48.5% (557)
+1.1%
Power Play
35.0% (20)
53.3% (107)
-18.3%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (158)
58.3% (12)
-22.9%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Staal is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Staal shoots left. Hayes is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Home / Away
Staal
Hayes
Home
46.1% (380)
50.8% (313)
Away
46.3% (363)
48.2% (363)
By Period
Staal
Hayes
P1
45.7%
52.3%
P2
46.2%
47.7%
P3
46.5%
48.4%
Final 5 min
47.4%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
46.2%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 13:49 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 01:45 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 01:41 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 01:15 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 05:24 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 02:39 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 07:58 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 05:04 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 04:47 | Offensive | Eric Staal |