Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 46.6% vs Stastny 56.3% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 86.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 59.1%
Neutral zone
Stastny 57.7%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Staal
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Staal
Stastny
Last 5: Staal 3-2 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
2
Staal
Stastny
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
3
0
Staal
Stastny
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (565)
57.5% (412)
-7.9%
Power Play
35.0% (20)
60.0% (65)
-25.0%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (158)
44.4% (9)
-9.0%
On power play, Stastny has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Staal is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (475).
Staal shoots left. Stastny is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
Staal
Stastny
Home
46.1% (380)
58.3% (276)
Away
46.3% (363)
56.7% (210)
By Period
Staal
Stastny
P1
45.7%
63.7%
P2
46.2%
57.3%
P3
46.5%
50.4%
Final 5 min
47.4%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
46.2%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 17:27 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 17:20 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 3 | 03:16 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 2 | 18:57 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 2 | 18:52 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |