Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.3% vs Tavares 57.2% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 74.3%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 61.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.8%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Rodrigues
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Rodrigues
Tavares
Last 8: Rodrigues 4-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Rodrigues
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
1
Rodrigues
Tavares
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Rodrigues
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (637)
58.0% (914)
-10.1%
Power Play
47.9% (71)
57.0% (235)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (67)
57.9% (19)
-20.6%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +20.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Rodrigues is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Rodrigues shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Tavares
Home
48.3% (429)
57.8% (614)
Away
45.4% (346)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Rodrigues
Tavares
P1
48.3%
58.0%
P2
46.9%
56.9%
P3
45.6%
58.4%
OT
44.4%
57.7%
Final 5 min
50.6%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.0%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 13:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 07:02 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 08:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 17:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 07:36 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |