Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Tavares 54.4% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 24-23 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 66.5%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 67.4%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 55.2%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Rodrigues
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
24
(47 meetings)
23
24
Rodrigues
Tavares
Last 10: Rodrigues 4-6 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
7
7
Rodrigues
Tavares
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
12
9
Rodrigues
Tavares
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
8
Rodrigues
Tavares
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,883)
54.0% (16,108)
-7.8%
Power Play
45.0% (298)
56.5% (4,283)
-11.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (219)
50.6% (620)
-7.7%
On power play, Tavares has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,422).
Rodrigues shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Tavares
Home
47.1% (1,820)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Rodrigues
Tavares
P1
46.9%
55.0%
P2
46.1%
54.1%
P3
44.6%
54.1%
OT
48.5%
55.9%
Final 5 min
48.1%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.9%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 13:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 07:02 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 08:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 17:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 07:36 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 12:15 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 01:03 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 13:11 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 15:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 01:45 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 16:21 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 03:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 03:33 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 01:05 | Defensive | John Tavares |