Scouting Report
Evan Rodrigues holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.3% vs Bourque 46.7% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 51.6%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 52.1%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 51.5%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Rodrigues
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Rodrigues
Bourque
Last 6: Rodrigues 2-4 Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
2
Rodrigues
Bourque
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Rodrigues
Bourque
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (637)
47.0% (181)
+0.9%
Power Play
47.9% (71)
25.0% (16)
+22.9%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (67)
42.9% (7)
-5.6%
On power play, Rodrigues has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Rodrigues shoots right. Bourque is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (56).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Bourque
Home
48.3% (429)
41.9% (105)
Away
45.4% (346)
48.5% (99)
By Period
Rodrigues
Bourque
P1
48.3%
39.7%
P2
46.9%
39.3%
P3
45.6%
52.9%
Final 5 min
50.6%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.0%
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 04:19 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:54 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 11:42 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 11:31 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 01:10 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:47 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |