Evan Rodrigues vs Pavel Buchnevich
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Evan Rodrigues holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.3% vs Buchnevich 45.3% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 58.7%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 68.8%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 64.9%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 61.6%
61.6%
38.4%
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Last 6: Rodrigues 4-2 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
1
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
1
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (525)
41.0% (78)
+5.9%
Power Play
48.1% (54)
44.4% (9)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (57)
20.0% (5)
+13.3%
On penalty kill, Rodrigues has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Rodrigues shoots right. Buchnevich is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (47).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Home
46.3% (354)
40.0% (60)
Away
45.0% (282)
40.6% (32)
By Period
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
P1
47.7%
38.1%
P2
46.0%
30.8%
P3
43.2%
54.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
36.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
44.0%▬
44.0%
45.8%
Buchnevich
40.0%▬
41.0%
40.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 16:46 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:41 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 07:38 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 04:46 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |