Evan Rodrigues vs Pavel Buchnevich
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Evan Rodrigues holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Buchnevich 35.4% (+12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 63.7%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 84.4%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 82.4%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 79.6%
79.6%
20.4%
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Last 6: Rodrigues 4-2 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
1
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
1
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,883)
33.7% (895)
+12.5%
Power Play
45.0% (298)
44.2% (52)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (219)
24.3% (37)
+18.6%
On penalty kill, Rodrigues has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,422).
Rodrigues shoots right. Buchnevich is 36.1% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Home
47.1% (1,820)
34.7% (490)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
33.2% (494)
By Period
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
P1
46.9%
34.4%
P2
46.1%
33.7%
P3
44.6%
33.4%
OT
48.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
37.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.9%
Buchnevich
36.0%▼
38.5%
33.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 16:46 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:41 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 07:38 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 04:46 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |