Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.3% vs Aho 50.0% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 73.2%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 52.8%
Neutral zone
Aho 59.6%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Rodrigues
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Rodrigues
Aho
Last 6: Rodrigues 4-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
0
Rodrigues
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Rodrigues
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (637)
49.9% (851)
-2.0%
Power Play
47.9% (71)
53.5% (144)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (67)
43.3% (60)
-6.0%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Rodrigues is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Rodrigues shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Aho
Home
48.3% (429)
53.2% (554)
Away
45.4% (346)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Rodrigues
Aho
P1
48.3%
49.1%
P2
46.9%
50.8%
P3
45.6%
49.7%
OT
44.4%
58.8%
Final 5 min
50.6%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.0%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 02:05 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | OT | 04:17 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 17:35 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:30 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |