Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Malkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 44.5% vs Malkin 43.5% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 53.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 65.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 54.1%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Stepan
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Stepan
Malkin
Last 9: Stepan 6-3 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Malkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Malkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Stepan
Malkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (942)
43.1% (733)
+0.4%
Power Play
48.1% (162)
31.3% (16)
+16.8%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (128)
16.7% (6)
+26.3%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +26.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Stepan is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (812).
Stepan shoots right. Malkin is 35.0% vs right-shot opponents (266).
Home / Away
Stepan
Malkin
Home
45.6% (629)
42.6% (338)
Away
42.5% (603)
42.7% (417)
By Period
Stepan
Malkin
P1
44.7%
40.9%
P2
43.7%
45.3%
P3
43.9%
42.0%
OT
40.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.1%
Malkin
48.0%▬
47.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2015 | 3 | 06:15 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 18, 2015 | 2 | 08:57 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 18, 2015 | 2 | 02:39 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 18, 2015 | 1 | 08:30 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 15, 2014 | 2 | 07:54 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 15, 2014 | 1 | 04:49 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 15, 2014 | 1 | 01:15 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 11, 2014 | 3 | 04:17 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 11, 2014 | 1 | 09:18 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |