Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.0% vs Malkin 42.9% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 56.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 85.0%
Neutral zone
Stepan 70.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 76.2%
76.2%
23.8%
Stepan
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Stepan
Malkin
Last 5: Stepan 4-1 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Malkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Malkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Malkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (889)
42.5% (722)
+4.1%
Power Play
46.9% (113)
35.3% (17)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (101)
25.0% (16)
+22.5%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +22.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Stepan is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (785).
Stepan shoots right. Malkin is 36.0% vs right-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Stepan
Malkin
Home
47.7% (555)
43.3% (406)
Away
45.6% (548)
40.4% (349)
By Period
Stepan
Malkin
P1
46.4%
39.3%
P2
45.7%
43.1%
P3
48.5%
43.8%
OT
35.3%
37.5%
Final 5 min
46.5%
38.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.7%
Malkin
48.0%▬
47.0%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2016 | 3 | 02:45 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 3 | 02:32 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 2 | 01:14 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 2 | 01:09 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 1 | 03:19 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |