Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.2% vs Malkin 43.9% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 67.1%
Defensive zone
Stepan 87.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 78.0%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 77.6%
77.6%
22.4%
Stepan
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
1
(10 meetings)
9
1
Stepan
Malkin
Last 10: Stepan 9-1 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Malkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Malkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
4
0
Stepan
Malkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (1,155)
42.7% (827)
+5.5%
Power Play
48.2% (193)
63.2% (19)
-15.0%
On power play, Malkin has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Stepan is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,064).
Stepan shoots right. Malkin is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Stepan
Malkin
Home
46.4% (774)
45.1% (426)
Away
47.7% (748)
41.2% (420)
By Period
Stepan
Malkin
P1
46.7%
41.3%
P2
46.3%
44.0%
P3
48.1%
44.7%
OT
47.6%
25.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.0%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2016 | 3 | 06:17 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 20, 2016 | 3 | 06:12 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 20, 2016 | 3 | 00:31 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 2 | 18:40 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 1 | 13:02 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 1 | 00:24 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 21, 2016 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 21, 2016 | 2 | 04:13 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 21, 2016 | 2 | 00:37 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |