Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.5% vs 45.8%). Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 32 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Malkin 45.9% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 68-39 in 107 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 54.3%
Defensive zone
Stepan 77.7%
Neutral zone
Stepan 53.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Stepan
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
68
-
39
(107 meetings)
68
39
Stepan
Malkin
Last 10: Stepan 5-5 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
16
13
Stepan
Malkin
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
23
9
Stepan
Malkin
32 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
29
17
Stepan
Malkin
46 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
45.6% (10,081)
+0.9%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
50.1% (668)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
32.2% (59)
+12.0%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Malkin is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,557).
Home / Away
Stepan
Malkin
Home
47.6% (6,608)
47.6% (5,395)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
44.0% (5,436)
By Period
Stepan
Malkin
P1
47.5%
45.9%
P2
45.6%
46.2%
P3
46.8%
45.2%
OT
40.7%
49.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 03:28 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 12, 2020 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 12, 2020 | 3 | 19:41 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 12, 2020 | 3 | 16:58 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 12, 2020 | 3 | 15:10 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 12, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 12, 2020 | 2 | 12:20 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 12, 2020 | 2 | 06:25 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 12, 2020 | 1 | 08:44 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 12, 2020 | 1 | 06:03 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 12, 2020 | 1 | 02:25 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 12, 2020 | 1 | 01:43 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 12, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 3 | 18:01 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 3 | 13:42 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 3 | 07:10 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 3 | 02:01 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 2 | 02:06 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 2 | 01:55 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 6, 2019 | 1 | 13:28 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |