Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.8% vs 45.3%). Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Malkin wins 43.0% vs right-shot opponents — Nazar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Nazar 45.7% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 69.9%
Defensive zone
Nazar 63.7%
Neutral zone
Nazar 50.7%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Malkin
Nazar
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Malkin
Nazar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
3
1
Malkin
Nazar
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Malkin
Nazar
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
0
2
Malkin
Nazar
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Nazar
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
46.1% (866)
-0.5%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
46.5% (172)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
33.3% (69)
-1.1%
On power play, Malkin has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nazar shoots right. Malkin is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,557).
Malkin shoots left. Nazar is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Home / Away
Malkin
Nazar
Home
47.6% (5,395)
44.2% (536)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
46.4% (571)
By Period
Malkin
Nazar
P1
45.9%
47.3%
P2
46.2%
42.0%
P3
45.2%
46.0%
OT
49.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
46.0%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 06:02 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |