Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +17.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Malkin wins 30.5% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 42.3% vs Spezza 55.8% (-17.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 81.1%
Defensive zone
Spezza 94.6%
Neutral zone
Spezza 89.0%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 87.7%
12.3%
87.7%
Malkin
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Malkin
Spezza
Last 6: Malkin 5-1 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Spezza
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
4
1
Malkin
Spezza
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
38.1% (176)
56.1% (795)
-18.0%
Power Play
50.0% (18)
56.9% (211)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
56.3% (190)
-56.3%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +56.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Malkin is 30.5% vs right-shot opponents (59).
Malkin shoots left. Spezza is 58.7% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
Malkin
Spezza
Home
38.0% (100)
56.6% (532)
Away
39.0% (100)
56.0% (678)
By Period
Malkin
Spezza
P1
39.5%
58.8%
P2
35.6%
59.6%
P3
41.3%
50.4%
OT
0.0%
57.9%
Final 5 min
35.5%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
38.5%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 2010 | 1 | 10:46 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 26, 2010 | 1 | 10:39 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 26, 2010 | 1 | 10:33 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 26, 2010 | 1 | 03:04 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 26, 2010 | 3 | 15:23 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 26, 2010 | 1 | 17:53 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |