Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Malkin wins 43.0% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Spezza 54.7% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 27-21 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 78.5%
Defensive zone
Malkin 77.9%
Neutral zone
Malkin 78.8%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 78.5%
78.5%
21.5%
Malkin
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
27
(48 meetings)
21
27
Malkin
Spezza
Last 10: Malkin 6-4 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
10
6
Malkin
Spezza
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
8
Malkin
Spezza
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
10
13
Malkin
Spezza
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
54.4% (7,990)
-8.8%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
56.8% (1,726)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
52.7% (643)
-20.5%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Malkin is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,557).
Malkin shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
Malkin
Spezza
Home
47.6% (5,395)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Malkin
Spezza
P1
45.9%
55.7%
P2
46.2%
54.4%
P3
45.2%
54.1%
OT
49.0%
51.5%
Final 5 min
46.0%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 05:28 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 14:49 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 02:24 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 3 | 04:25 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 2 | 15:32 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 2 | 01:16 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 1 | 13:20 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 3 | 07:37 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 2 | 13:15 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 2 | 01:42 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 2 | 04:56 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 2 | 02:19 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 1 | 16:06 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 1 | 09:33 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 1 | 06:48 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 2 | 18:16 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 17:51 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 13:14 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 11:24 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |