Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Malkin wins 41.2% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 47.8% vs Spezza 53.9% (-9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 72.0%
Defensive zone
Malkin 71.6%
Neutral zone
Malkin 69.7%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 70.2%
70.2%
29.8%
Malkin
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Malkin
Spezza
Last 8: Malkin 2-6 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Spezza
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Malkin
Spezza
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
5
Malkin
Spezza
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (366)
54.5% (88)
-7.0%
Power Play
41.9% (43)
75.0% (16)
-33.1%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (4)
53.3% (15)
+21.7%
On power play, Spezza has a +33.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Malkin is 41.2% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Malkin shoots left. Spezza is 61.7% vs left-shot opponents (60).
Home / Away
Malkin
Spezza
Home
52.1% (213)
62.2% (45)
Away
42.0% (200)
54.1% (74)
By Period
Malkin
Spezza
P1
47.2%
58.7%
P2
44.4%
64.1%
P3
50.0%
46.9%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
47.2%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2013 | 3 | 16:02 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 27, 2013 | 2 | 13:44 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 27, 2013 | 2 | 03:57 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 27, 2013 | 1 | 13:31 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 27, 2013 | 1 | 08:01 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 27, 2013 | 1 | 05:25 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 27, 2013 | 1 | 03:21 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 27, 2013 | 1 | 03:17 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |