Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Malkin wins 42.6% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.1% vs Barzal 41.4% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 56.3%
Defensive zone
Barzal 64.3%
Neutral zone
Barzal 52.9%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 64.3%
35.7%
64.3%
Malkin
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Malkin
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Malkin
Barzal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (219)
40.4% (463)
+5.3%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
34.2% (38)
+0.4%
On even strength, Malkin has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Malkin is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Malkin shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Malkin
Barzal
Home
50.4% (113)
38.1% (244)
Away
39.4% (132)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Malkin
Barzal
P1
47.7%
46.6%
P2
44.9%
35.7%
P3
40.0%
37.7%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
35.3%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
44.5%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:42 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |