Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Paul 52.2% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 12-7 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 84.3%
Defensive zone
Paul 53.9%
Neutral zone
Malkin 69.7%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 66.1%
66.1%
33.9%
Malkin
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
12
(19 meetings)
7
12
Malkin
Paul
Last 10: Malkin 4-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
Malkin
Paul
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
4
Malkin
Paul
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Malkin
Paul
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
52.5% (3,796)
-6.9%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
56.5% (480)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
46.7% (574)
-14.5%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Malkin is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,274).
Malkin shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Malkin
Paul
Home
47.6% (5,395)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Malkin
Paul
P1
45.9%
53.9%
P2
46.2%
51.0%
P3
45.2%
52.0%
OT
49.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.0%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 02:30 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 06:11 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 01:17 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 19:24 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 3 | 02:16 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 26, 2023 | 2 | 16:20 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 08:36 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 2 | 10:56 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 30, 2019 | 3 | 13:22 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 30, 2019 | 2 | 18:17 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 30, 2019 | 2 | 10:42 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 30, 2019 | 1 | 15:24 | Offensive | Nick Paul |