Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Malkin wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.1% vs Monahan 52.8% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 52.1%
Defensive zone
Monahan 82.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 72.6%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
Malkin
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Malkin
Monahan
Last 5: Malkin 3-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
2
1
Malkin
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Malkin
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (219)
53.2% (823)
-7.5%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
55.3% (159)
-20.7%
On power play, Monahan has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Malkin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (177).
Malkin shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Malkin
Monahan
Home
50.4% (113)
54.6% (529)
Away
39.4% (132)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Malkin
Monahan
P1
47.7%
49.0%
P2
44.9%
55.4%
P3
40.0%
53.6%
OT
100.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
35.3%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
44.5%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 04:42 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 10:46 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 06:10 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 25, 2025 | OT | 02:21 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:30 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |