Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Svechkov on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Svechkov wins 43.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Svechkov 44.5% vs Hertl 57.1% (-14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 93.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 73.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 89.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 83.0%
17.0%
83.0%
Svechkov
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Svechkov
Hertl
Last 5: Svechkov 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Svechkov
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Svechkov
3
0
Svechkov
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Svechkov
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.4% (424)
58.0% (816)
-14.6%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
56.5% (260)
-23.2%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
62.9% (35)
-22.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Svechkov is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Svechkov shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Svechkov
Hertl
Home
41.0% (212)
59.7% (561)
Away
45.5% (220)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Svechkov
Hertl
P1
36.4%
51.4%
P2
46.4%
64.1%
P3
46.7%
58.5%
OT
100.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
42.9%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Svechkov
38.0%▼
41.5%
43.3%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 09:02 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 07:10 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 05:52 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |