Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Svechkov on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Svechkov wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Svechkov 44.2% vs Hertl 57.2% (-14.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 94.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 76.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 91.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 85.2%
14.8%
85.2%
Svechkov
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Svechkov
Hertl
Last 5: Svechkov 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Svechkov
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Svechkov
3
0
Svechkov
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Svechkov
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (430)
58.1% (823)
-15.1%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
56.2% (265)
-22.9%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
62.9% (35)
-22.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Svechkov is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (290).
Svechkov shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Svechkov
Hertl
Home
41.0% (212)
59.7% (561)
Away
44.7% (226)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Svechkov
Hertl
P1
36.1%
51.6%
P2
45.4%
63.8%
P3
46.7%
58.6%
OT
100.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
42.4%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Svechkov
34.0%▼
41.5%
42.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 09:02 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 07:10 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 05:52 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |