Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Svechkov on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Svechkov wins 41.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Svechkov 41.4% vs Hertl 54.2% (-14.0%)
H2H factor
Svechkov leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 95.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 97.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 96.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 96.4%
3.6%
96.4%
Svechkov
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Svechkov
Hertl
Last 9: Svechkov 7-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Svechkov
2
0
Svechkov
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Svechkov
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Svechkov
6
0
Svechkov
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Svechkov
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (748)
53.8% (8,268)
-13.4%
Power Play
41.2% (17)
59.3% (1,975)
-18.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (8)
46.3% (806)
-21.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Svechkov is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (512).
Svechkov shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Svechkov
Hertl
Home
39.2% (393)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
41.3% (380)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Svechkov
Hertl
P1
35.6%
53.6%
P2
45.0%
54.1%
P3
40.2%
55.3%
OT
100.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
39.3%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Svechkov
34.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 09:02 | Defensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 07:10 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 05:52 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 05:52 | Neutral | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 03:05 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 02:45 | Offensive | Fedor Svechkov |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 13:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |