Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Nazar wins 43.8% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.6% vs Toews 60.3% (-15.2%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 14-3 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nazar 93.7%
Defensive zone
Nazar 87.1%
Neutral zone
Nazar 94.3%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 92.3%
92.3%
7.7%
Nazar
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
14
(17 meetings)
3
14
Nazar
Toews
Last 10: Nazar 1-9 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
6
Nazar
Toews
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
4
Nazar
Toews
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
4
Nazar
Toews
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (533)
62.5% (696)
-15.6%
Power Play
49.2% (132)
59.6% (141)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
25.6% (39)
46.9% (32)
-21.3%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Nazar is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Nazar shoots right. Toews is 71.8% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Nazar
Toews
Home
45.0% (329)
60.9% (435)
Away
47.2% (375)
62.0% (434)
By Period
Nazar
Toews
P1
47.2%
59.8%
P2
43.1%
65.7%
P3
46.8%
58.8%
OT
75.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
46.2%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 17:25 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:35 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 15:03 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 06:15 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 03:46 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 03:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 02:02 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |