Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nazar wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.3% vs Toews 57.8% (-13.1%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Nazar 87.9%
Defensive zone
Nazar 84.7%
Neutral zone
Nazar 85.0%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 85.5%
85.5%
14.5%
Nazar
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Nazar
Toews
Last 10: Nazar 2-8 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
2
Nazar
Toews
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
4
Nazar
Toews
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
4
Nazar
Toews
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (726)
57.1% (12,906)
-11.2%
Power Play
45.5% (121)
63.2% (3,220)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (60)
53.6% (1,808)
-23.6%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +23.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Nazar is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (679).
Nazar shoots right. Toews is 59.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,433).
Home / Away
Nazar
Toews
Home
44.4% (450)
59.6% (9,086)
Away
45.1% (457)
56.1% (8,879)
By Period
Nazar
Toews
P1
47.2%
58.7%
P2
41.6%
57.7%
P3
45.0%
57.2%
OT
58.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
45.1%
58.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
46.0%▼
47.5%
44.8%
Toews
52.0%▼
58.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 15:03 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 06:15 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 03:46 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 03:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 02:02 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |