Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Nazar wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Toews 57.9% (-12.6%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 14-3 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nazar 93.9%
Defensive zone
Nazar 89.6%
Neutral zone
Nazar 91.6%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 92.1%
92.1%
7.9%
Nazar
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
14
(17 meetings)
3
14
Nazar
Toews
Last 10: Nazar 1-9 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
6
Nazar
Toews
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
4
Nazar
Toews
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
4
Nazar
Toews
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (866)
57.2% (13,047)
-11.1%
Power Play
46.5% (172)
63.3% (3,252)
-16.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (69)
53.6% (1,810)
-20.3%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Nazar is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Nazar shoots right. Toews is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (6,486).
Home / Away
Nazar
Toews
Home
44.2% (536)
59.7% (9,192)
Away
46.4% (571)
56.1% (8,948)
By Period
Nazar
Toews
P1
47.3%
58.6%
P2
42.0%
57.8%
P3
46.0%
57.3%
OT
66.7%
58.9%
Final 5 min
44.7%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 17:25 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:35 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 15:03 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 06:15 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 03:46 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 03:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 02:02 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |