Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nazar wins 43.8% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.6% vs Staal 54.6% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 65.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 89.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 75.9%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 78.0%
22.0%
78.0%
Nazar
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Nazar
Staal
Last 8: Nazar 5-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Nazar
Staal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nazar
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
4
1
Nazar
Staal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (533)
56.1% (955)
-9.2%
Power Play
49.2% (132)
66.9% (142)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
25.6% (39)
43.0% (242)
-17.4%
On power play, Staal has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Nazar is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Nazar shoots right. Staal is 65.3% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
Nazar
Staal
Home
45.0% (329)
55.4% (663)
Away
47.2% (375)
54.4% (676)
By Period
Nazar
Staal
P1
47.2%
55.1%
P2
43.1%
54.7%
P3
46.8%
53.9%
OT
75.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
46.2%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 03:33 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |