Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Nazar wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Staal 55.3% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Nazar 53.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 65.5%
Neutral zone
Staal 50.1%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Nazar
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Nazar
Staal
Last 10: Nazar 5-5 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
2
Nazar
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
3
Nazar
Staal
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
7
3
Nazar
Staal
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (866)
55.9% (14,620)
-9.8%
Power Play
46.5% (172)
62.7% (1,745)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (69)
48.0% (2,896)
-14.7%
On power play, Staal has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Nazar is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Nazar shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Home / Away
Nazar
Staal
Home
44.2% (536)
56.4% (9,663)
Away
46.4% (571)
54.3% (9,663)
By Period
Nazar
Staal
P1
47.3%
55.2%
P2
42.0%
55.9%
P3
46.0%
54.9%
OT
66.7%
56.2%
Final 5 min
44.7%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 03:33 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 05:59 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 17:13 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 14:56 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 04:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 04:10 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |