Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Scheifele 46.8% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 77.7%
Defensive zone
Scheifele 56.2%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 61.0%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 68.5%
31.5%
68.5%
Nazar
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Nazar
Scheifele
Last 5: Nazar 4-1 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nazar
Scheifele
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
0
Nazar
Scheifele
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (866)
46.3% (12,036)
-0.2%
Power Play
46.5% (172)
50.2% (2,563)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (69)
41.6% (598)
-8.3%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Nazar is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (300).
Nazar shoots right. Scheifele is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,377).
Home / Away
Nazar
Scheifele
Home
44.2% (536)
48.9% (7,644)
Away
46.4% (571)
44.7% (7,554)
By Period
Nazar
Scheifele
P1
47.3%
48.2%
P2
42.0%
45.6%
P3
46.0%
46.8%
OT
66.7%
42.5%
Final 5 min
44.7%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:59 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 18:48 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 05:21 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |