Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 43.8% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.6% vs Backlund 49.7% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 89.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 58.6%
Neutral zone
Nazar 66.5%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Nazar
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Nazar
Backlund
Last 6: Nazar 1-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
Backlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Nazar
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Nazar
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (533)
50.1% (891)
-3.2%
Power Play
49.2% (132)
53.1% (64)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
25.6% (39)
47.8% (278)
-22.2%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Nazar is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Nazar shoots right. Backlund is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Nazar
Backlund
Home
45.0% (329)
48.1% (580)
Away
47.2% (375)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Nazar
Backlund
P1
47.2%
45.1%
P2
43.1%
54.7%
P3
46.8%
49.0%
OT
75.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
42.9%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
46.2%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 13:04 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:17 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:45 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:42 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |