Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nazar wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Backlund 49.0% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 76.5%
Defensive zone
Nazar 58.1%
Neutral zone
Nazar 68.0%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 63.5%
63.5%
36.5%
Nazar
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Nazar
Backlund
Last 7: Nazar 2-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
Backlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
3
Nazar
Backlund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Nazar
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (866)
49.7% (13,410)
-3.6%
Power Play
46.5% (172)
51.6% (1,336)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (69)
44.0% (2,446)
-10.7%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Nazar is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Nazar shoots right. Backlund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (6,244).
Home / Away
Nazar
Backlund
Home
44.2% (536)
49.7% (8,565)
Away
46.4% (571)
48.3% (8,632)
By Period
Nazar
Backlund
P1
47.3%
48.5%
P2
42.0%
50.3%
P3
46.0%
48.4%
OT
66.7%
44.1%
Final 5 min
44.7%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 13:04 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:17 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:45 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:42 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 08:50 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |