Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.6% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 87.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 63.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 76.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 83.1%
16.9%
83.1%
Nazar
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nazar
MacKinnon
Last 5: Nazar 4-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
1
Nazar
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (533)
50.0% (992)
-3.1%
Power Play
49.2% (132)
64.9% (148)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
25.6% (39)
34.4% (32)
-8.8%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Nazar is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (200).
Nazar shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Nazar
MacKinnon
Home
45.0% (329)
53.3% (591)
Away
47.2% (375)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Nazar
MacKinnon
P1
47.2%
49.9%
P2
43.1%
53.2%
P3
46.8%
50.8%
OT
75.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
42.9%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
46.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 18:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:15 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:22 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:34 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |