Frank Nazar vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Nazar leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 63.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 56.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 61.0%
39.0%
61.0%
Nazar
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Nazar
MacKinnon
Last 10: Nazar 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
5
Nazar
MacKinnon
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
2
0
Nazar
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (866)
46.1% (11,218)
+0.0%
Power Play
46.5% (172)
53.3% (1,412)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (69)
42.8% (502)
-9.5%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Nazar is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (300).
Nazar shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
Home / Away
Nazar
MacKinnon
Home
44.2% (536)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
46.4% (571)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Nazar
MacKinnon
P1
47.3%
47.4%
P2
42.0%
46.6%
P3
46.0%
46.1%
OT
66.7%
48.4%
Final 5 min
44.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 18:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:15 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:22 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:34 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:27 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:20 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 16:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |