Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.6% vs Roy 51.9% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 50.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 87.4%
Neutral zone
Roy 70.9%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 76.4%
23.6%
76.4%
Nazar
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nazar
Roy
Last 6: Nazar 4-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nazar
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
1
Nazar
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (533)
51.9% (547)
-5.0%
Power Play
49.2% (132)
54.1% (37)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
25.6% (39)
53.3% (92)
-27.7%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Nazar is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (200).
Nazar shoots right. Roy is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Home / Away
Nazar
Roy
Home
45.0% (329)
54.0% (328)
Away
47.2% (375)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Nazar
Roy
P1
47.2%
53.5%
P2
43.1%
51.6%
P3
46.8%
51.6%
Final 5 min
42.9%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
46.2%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:04 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:51 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:34 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 13:31 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |