Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Roy 48.4% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 52.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 80.6%
Neutral zone
Roy 64.9%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 67.6%
32.4%
67.6%
Nazar
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Nazar
Roy
Last 7: Nazar 5-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nazar
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
1
Nazar
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (866)
48.7% (3,719)
-2.6%
Power Play
46.5% (172)
49.5% (283)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (69)
45.5% (477)
-12.2%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Nazar is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (300).
Nazar shoots right. Roy is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,191).
Home / Away
Nazar
Roy
Home
44.2% (536)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
46.4% (571)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Nazar
Roy
P1
47.3%
50.8%
P2
42.0%
46.3%
P3
46.0%
48.1%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.7%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:04 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:51 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:34 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 13:31 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 07:35 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |