Scouting Report
Frank Nazar holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 47.3% vs Cates 45.5% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 66.4%
Defensive zone
Nazar 68.0%
Neutral zone
Nazar 66.8%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Nazar
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nazar
Cates
Last 6: Nazar 4-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Nazar
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
2
1
Nazar
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
2
0
Nazar
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (574)
45.5% (756)
+1.7%
Power Play
51.0% (143)
42.1% (114)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
30.2% (43)
44.7% (47)
-14.5%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Nazar is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Nazar shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Nazar
Cates
Home
45.0% (329)
46.2% (468)
Away
48.5% (431)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Nazar
Cates
P1
47.8%
46.0%
P2
43.4%
47.5%
P3
48.4%
42.1%
OT
75.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
45.1%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 12:18 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 09:19 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 07:43 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |