Scouting Report
Frank Nazar holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.2% vs Cates 43.2% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Nazar leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nazar 66.1%
Defensive zone
Nazar 52.6%
Neutral zone
Nazar 57.4%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Nazar
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Nazar
Cates
Last 10: Nazar 6-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nazar
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nazar
Cates
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
2
1
Nazar
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (907)
44.1% (2,786)
+2.2%
Power Play
48.1% (183)
42.9% (254)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (73)
34.9% (373)
+0.7%
On power play, Nazar has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Nazar is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Nazar shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Home / Away
Nazar
Cates
Home
44.2% (536)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
47.4% (627)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Nazar
Cates
P1
47.7%
44.5%
P2
42.2%
43.7%
P3
47.1%
41.2%
OT
66.7%
29.4%
Final 5 min
46.0%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
45.9%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 12:18 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 09:19 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 07:43 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:03 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:49 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 18:01 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:03 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |