Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Nazar wins 43.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.6% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nazar 62.9%
Defensive zone
Nazar 65.2%
Neutral zone
Nazar 64.3%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Nazar
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
10
(17 meetings)
7
10
Nazar
O'Reilly
Last 10: Nazar 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
0
Nazar
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
6
Nazar
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Nazar
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (533)
55.4% (826)
-8.5%
Power Play
49.2% (132)
57.9% (221)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
25.6% (39)
50.4% (129)
-24.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nazar is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Nazar shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Nazar
O'Reilly
Home
45.0% (329)
55.8% (579)
Away
47.2% (375)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Nazar
O'Reilly
P1
47.2%
57.7%
P2
43.1%
54.8%
P3
46.8%
54.3%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
46.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:19 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 04:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 15:18 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 15:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 06:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 13:07 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 12:58 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 10:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:25 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 17:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 12:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |