Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Nazar wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 67.4%
Defensive zone
Nazar 61.0%
Neutral zone
Nazar 57.6%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Nazar
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nazar
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Nazar
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Nazar
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (314)
56.2% (983)
-11.0%
Power Play
39.5% (38)
55.5% (254)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (29)
52.0% (102)
-7.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nazar is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Nazar shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Nazar
O'Reilly
Home
43.4% (196)
56.2% (697)
Away
45.9% (185)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Nazar
O'Reilly
P1
47.3%
54.5%
P2
40.3%
55.5%
P3
46.7%
57.1%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
44.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:17 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 14:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |