Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Couturier on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Couturier 52.6% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Couturier 57.3%
Defensive zone
Couturier 78.4%
Neutral zone
Couturier 60.8%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 61.8%
38.2%
61.8%
Nazar
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Nazar
Couturier
Last 7: Nazar 4-3 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
2
Nazar
Couturier
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
Couturier
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
2
1
Nazar
Couturier
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (866)
52.5% (11,063)
-6.4%
Power Play
46.5% (172)
59.7% (1,280)
-13.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (69)
48.5% (1,816)
-15.2%
On penalty kill, Couturier has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Nazar is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Nazar shoots right. Couturier is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (5,245).
Home / Away
Nazar
Couturier
Home
44.2% (536)
53.4% (7,147)
Away
46.4% (571)
51.8% (7,019)
By Period
Nazar
Couturier
P1
47.3%
52.5%
P2
42.0%
52.6%
P3
46.0%
52.9%
OT
66.7%
49.4%
Final 5 min
44.7%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 07:35 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 04:18 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:58 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:01 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 01:02 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 18:12 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |