Scouting Report
Fraser Minten holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.5% vs Guentzel 47.4% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 62.3%
Defensive zone
Minten 67.2%
Neutral zone
Minten 52.7%
Result
Fraser Minten favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Minten
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Minten
Guentzel
Last 5: Minten 3-2 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Minten
1
0
Minten
Guentzel
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Minten
Guentzel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Minten
Guentzel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (603)
49.0% (200)
+0.6%
Power Play
45.8% (48)
42.3% (111)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
32.6% (43)
45.8% (24)
-13.2%
On penalty kill, Guentzel has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Minten is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (446).
Minten shoots left. Guentzel is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Minten
Guentzel
Home
51.6% (322)
48.8% (166)
Away
45.4% (372)
44.4% (169)
By Period
Minten
Guentzel
P1
44.9%
46.7%
P2
46.6%
48.5%
P3
52.1%
44.3%
OT
83.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
46.7%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
46.0%▼
49.5%
48.3%
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 13:37 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 05:52 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |