Scouting Report
Fraser Minten holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.0% vs Guentzel 46.3% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 74.3%
Defensive zone
Minten 78.4%
Neutral zone
Minten 50.4%
Result
Fraser Minten favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Minten
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Minten
Guentzel
Last 6: Minten 3-3 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Minten
Guentzel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Minten
Guentzel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Minten
Guentzel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (793)
46.3% (685)
+2.5%
Power Play
45.8% (59)
45.7% (291)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
34.0% (47)
42.9% (42)
-8.9%
On penalty kill, Guentzel has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Minten is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Minten shoots left. Guentzel is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Home / Away
Minten
Guentzel
Home
51.2% (449)
48.3% (544)
Away
44.4% (450)
43.2% (474)
By Period
Minten
Guentzel
P1
44.0%
47.8%
P2
46.4%
45.2%
P3
52.1%
45.3%
OT
83.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.7%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
46.0%▼
49.5%
47.8%
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 13:37 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 05:52 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 06:13 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |