Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 47.5%). Look for Minten on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Minten wins 44.9% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.5% vs Kapanen 47.8% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Minten 51.7%
Defensive zone
Minten 58.0%
Neutral zone
Minten 53.1%
Result
Fraser Minten favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Minten
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Minten
Kapanen
Last 7: Minten 5-2 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
0
2
Minten
Kapanen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Minten
2
0
Minten
Kapanen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Minten
3
0
Minten
Kapanen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (603)
47.5% (514)
+2.1%
Power Play
45.8% (48)
55.0% (40)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
32.6% (43)
39.5% (38)
-6.9%
On power play, Kapanen has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Minten is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (247).
Minten shoots left. Kapanen is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (438).
Home / Away
Minten
Kapanen
Home
51.6% (322)
47.9% (307)
Away
45.4% (372)
47.0% (285)
By Period
Minten
Kapanen
P1
44.9%
42.7%
P2
46.6%
51.4%
P3
52.1%
48.4%
OT
83.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
46.0%▼
49.5%
48.3%
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 03:53 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 10:08 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 18:55 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 10:09 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 08:28 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 08:27 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |