Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Minten wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.8% vs Carrick 54.2% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Minten 87.3%
Defensive zone
Minten 56.6%
Neutral zone
Minten 68.5%
Result
Fraser Minten favored at 61.7%
61.7%
38.3%
Minten
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Minten
Carrick
Last 7: Minten 2-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
4
Minten
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Minten
2
1
Minten
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (651)
55.5% (470)
-5.9%
Power Play
48.0% (50)
66.7% (3)
-18.7%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (45)
50.0% (58)
-14.4%
On power play, Carrick has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Minten is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (269).
Minten shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Minten
Carrick
Home
52.4% (349)
58.6% (261)
Away
45.3% (397)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Minten
Carrick
P1
45.4%
55.9%
P2
47.1%
53.5%
P3
52.3%
55.6%
OT
83.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.5%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
52.0%▲
50.0%
48.7%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 11:36 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 11:29 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 05:21 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 03:18 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 05:49 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 17:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |