Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Minten wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.3% vs Carrick 52.2% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Minten 84.2%
Defensive zone
Minten 50.4%
Neutral zone
Minten 68.8%
Result
Fraser Minten favored at 58.3%
58.3%
41.7%
Minten
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Minten
Carrick
Last 7: Minten 2-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
4
Minten
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Minten
2
1
Minten
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (841)
52.2% (2,544)
-3.3%
Power Play
47.5% (61)
61.3% (75)
-13.8%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (49)
50.8% (435)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Minten is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Minten shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Home / Away
Minten
Carrick
Home
51.9% (476)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
44.4% (475)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Minten
Carrick
P1
44.4%
51.8%
P2
46.8%
52.3%
P3
52.3%
52.6%
OT
83.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.7%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
52.0%▲
50.0%
48.2%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 11:36 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 11:29 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 05:21 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 03:18 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 05:49 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 17:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |