Frederick Gaudreau vs Jake Guentzel
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jake Guentzel holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaudreau on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Gaudreau wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Guentzel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 43.9% vs Guentzel 48.1% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 91.0%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 88.7%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 53.8%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Gaudreau
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Gaudreau
Guentzel
Last 6: Gaudreau 3-3 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
0
1
Gaudreau
Guentzel
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
3
0
Gaudreau
Guentzel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
0
2
Gaudreau
Guentzel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (414)
49.1% (230)
-4.2%
Power Play
31.8% (22)
44.9% (118)
-13.1%
Penalty Kill
38.0% (129)
46.2% (26)
-8.2%
On power play, Guentzel has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (453).
Gaudreau shoots right. Guentzel is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
Guentzel
Home
42.6% (277)
50.2% (205)
Away
43.1% (288)
44.4% (169)
By Period
Gaudreau
Guentzel
P1
44.1%
47.6%
P2
44.7%
49.0%
P3
39.5%
46.2%
OT
0.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
47.2%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
40.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 19:52 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 12:45 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:06 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 13:06 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 12:42 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |